The Precedent and The Prediction
Matt Chapman received a 6 year/$151 Million extension from the Giants on September 5th, 2024. This not only set the bar for Alex Bregman and the rest of the Third Base Free Agency market, but gave Chappy and San Francisco some much needed comfort for both parties. I predicted a 10-13 years at $275-325M for Manny Machado back in January of 2023, and he received 11-years and $350M. I predicted 10-12 years and $350M for Rafael Devers that same week, and he received a 10-year and $313.5M extension from Boston days later. I’m going out on a limb and saying that Alex won’t be staying in Houston; call it a “feeling”.
Using what I did for Machado and Devers, I’m going to give you an in-depth prediction as to WHAT Bregman will get this offseason. We’ll break it down in these categories; fWAR, Games Played, Average, Home runs, RBIs, as well as Outs Above Average (OAA) over the last few years, 2021 through 2023 to be exact. Top five players in their position at the age of 30 or under tend to get 10+ years and $300M+ when they hit free agency, with the exception of some players who are in the 1% club (Judge and Ohtani). Using the last three big Third Base contracts (Chapman, Machado and Devers), we have an average of 9 years as well as $271.5M which isn’t a bad starting point for Bregman. Devers’ contract skews things a bit as he was only 26 when he signed the extension; Chapman and Machado were 31 and 30, respectively. Alex Bregman will most likely be 30 years old when he signs, but going into his age-31 season when he plays in 2025. With years, dollars, and the small things out of the way, let’s get to those lists!
fWAR (MLB 3B 2021-23)
- Jose Ramirez – 17.0 fWAR
- Manny Machado – 15.0 fWAR
- Nolan Arenado – 14.1 fWAR
- Rafael Devers – 12.6 fWAR
- Alex Bregman – 12.1 fWAR
Games Played (MLB 2021-23)
- Jose Ramirez – 465 Games
- Eugenio Suarez – 457 Games
- Ryan McMahon – 456 Games
- Rafael Devers – 450 Games
- Nolan Arenado – 449 Games
And down at #12 sits Alex Bregman with 407 Games played between 2021-23 in the Majors as a Third Baseman (primary position).
Batting Average (MLB 2021-23)
- Yandy Diaz – .295 Average
- Rafael Devers – .282 Average
- Gio Urshela – ..281 Average
- Manny Machado – .278 Average
- Justin Turner – .277 Average
Listed at #8 sits Alex Bregman with a .263 Average over those three years.
Home Runs (MLB 2021-23)
- Rafael Devers – 98 HR
- Max Muncy – 93 HR
- Nolan Arenado (T-3) – 90 HR
- Manny Machado (T-3) – 90 HR
- Jose Ramirez – 89 HR
And sitting at #11 is Alex Bregman with 60 HR.
RBIs (MLB 2021-23)
- Jose Ramirez – 309 RBI
- Nolan Arenado (T-2) – 301 RBI
- Rafael Devers (T-2) – 301 RBI
- Manny Machado – 299 RBI
- Max Muncy – 268 RBI
And down at #8 is Alex Bregman with 246 RBI over the 2021-23 seasons amongst Third Basemen.
Outs Above Average
Bregman doesn’t have a top defensive year in the Majors as a Third Baseman ever since he moved to that position almost daily. In 2021, he was average and had a “0” OAA; in 2022 he had 7 Outs Above Average, which was his best at the position since 2017 where he had 5 OAA, and he currently has 5 OAA this season. He wrapped up 2023 with 2 OAA which gave him a paltry 9 OAA from 2021-23 as a Third Baseman. Third Baseman in general are playing three feet back of where they used to in 2015, as of 2018. This means that Bregman, on average, is playing 3-5 feet further back to give himself an “edge” on plays in the infield, yet doesn’t excel on plays going back, but those he has to run in on. The positioning of himself actually be a detriment, even with the twitch reactions of his earlier years may be slowing down with age. To put it in perspective, Alex had the 9 Outs Above Average over three seasons (2021-23), and the best defensive Third Baseman in Ke’Bryan Hayes had SEVENTEEN Outs Above Average in 2023 alone. Bregman was the 14th best defensive Third Baseman in 2023 (tied with two others).
Conclusion
With everything from defense to offense and everything in between put together from the 2021 through 2023 seasons put together, we have a better picture of what Alex Bregman has provided as of recent for the Astros. Gone are the days of being a top 5 MVP player, Silver Slugger, and All Star. He may help his team at another World Series run this season, but that’s to be determined, and could severely change how teams look at him, depending on how he performs this October. One thing you can depend on him for is to be above average in most categories. He will be playing 130+ Games a year, hitting .260+ at the plate while knocking 20 Home Runs and driving in 80+ RBI a season. These aren’t eye popping numbers, and are comparable to a slightly more powerful Matt Chapman with less defense. My final prediction for Alex Bregman’s next contract in the offseason, without a “home discount” to return to Houston (Which I doubt he’ll give), given his age and recent product is a minimum of 5 years and a maximum of 8 years, ranging anywhere from $175M to $285M. This contract will definitely have escalators in it for MVP, All Star, All Star MVP, and more. If he gets the higher end of years (putting him in his age-39 season), there may be Club Options in those final years (seasons 2030-32). A team like the Yankees may be willing to give Bregman that 10-year deal and $300M+ if they miss out on Outfielder Juan Soto.
