Recent Contracts, Health
Teams are already looking at who they want to go after in terms of Free Agents this offseason, and Willy Adames plays a premium position with pop that gets overshadowed by the likes of Lindor, Volpe, Story and Seager. It’s time we look at what he’s about to get in his first trip on the market. First and foremost, he’ll only be 29 in 2025, while Trea Turner was 30 going into his 11-year/$300M deal with the Phillies, Corey Seager was 28 when he started his 10-year/$325 deal for Texas, and Carlos Correa was 28 in his first season with the Twins after inking a 6-year/$200M deal which could be a 10-year/$270M if all of his Vesting Options from 2029-32 go through. There are some major things that we need to look at as far as physicality and injury history for Adames that will contribute to the years he may receive on the market, or in an extension with the Brewers.
Willy Adames has only had five major injuries since starting his MLB career in 2018. Two stints on the IL in 2021 with Quad issues, two Ankle issues in 2022, and being struck by a foul ball in 2023, a fluke. This is nothing like the Correa concerns that multiple teams had before he ultimately re-signed with Minnesota for his 6-year deal. Using these players contracts as a baseline, he’s looking at 9-years/$275M, with just Correa’s guaranteed money. There are some things that are big and separate Adames from these other players in terms of awards. He was in the top 20 of MVP voting once, back in 2021, which we’ll start at for the stats. Corey Seager on the other hand is a NL ROY award, 2x WS winner, 2x WS MVP, NLCS MVP, 3x Silver Slugger, and 5x All-Star. Turner is going to the playoffs in 2024, won a world series in 2019, has a Batting Title to go with being a 3x All-Star. Even Carlos Correa, who has the smallest of the most recent Shortstop contracts is a Rookie of the Year, Platinum Glove and World Series Winner. But as I mentioned, Adames has been healthy going on 1 1/2 seasons, now. Seager is out of the season with a sports hernia surgery and Turner had to deal with a Hamstring injury just this season, missing nearly 40 Games.
The Rules and The Prediction
We’ll be looking at the following categories for Shortstops throughout MLB from 2021-23; fWAR, Games Played, Average, Homeruns, RBIs, and Outs Above Average (OAA). This gives us a look at overall contribution, consistency, power, clutch situations, and defense. High WAR players tend to get high contracts, as do players who stay off of the IL, and have high power. Let’s go!
fWAR MLB SS (2021-23)
- Trea Turner – 17.8 fWAR
- Francisco Lindor – 15.8 fWAR
- (T-3) Xander Bogaerts – 14.7 fWAR
- (T-3) Dansby Swanson – 14.7 fWAR
- Corey Seager – 14.5 fWAR
- Bo Bichette – 13.7 fWAR
Down on the list at #9 is Willy Adames with a 10.8 fWAR.
Games Played MLB SS (2021-23)
- Dansby Swanson – 469 Games
- Trea Turner – 463 Games
- Bo Bichette – 453 Games
- J.P. Crawford – 450 Games
- (T-5) Xander Bogaerts – 449 Games
- (T-5) Tommy Edman – 449 Games
Willy Adames is down at #9 with 428 Games played.
Batting Average MLB SS (2021-23)
- Bo Bichette – .298 Average
- Trea Turner – .296 Average
- Xander Bogaerts – .295 Average
- Corey Seager – .287 Average
- (T-5) Nico Hoerner – .284 Average
- (T-5) Tim Anderson – .284 Average
And down at #30, bottom of the first page is Willy Adames with a .238 Average.
Home Runs MLB SS (2021-23)
- Corey Seager – 82 HR
- Willy Adames – 80 HR
- Francisco Lindor – 77 HR
- Trea Turner – 75 HR
- Dansby Swanson – 74 HR
Being #2 here helps a lot, definitely balances out being a bottom tier Average guy.
RBIs MLB SS (2021-23)
- (T-1) Francisco Lindor – 268 RBI
- (T-1) Bo Bichette – 268 RBI
- Dansby Swanson – 264 RBI
- Trea Turner – 253 RBI
- Willy Adames – 251 RBI
Being in the top 5 here helps, it shows you can be clutch, even if you aren’t hitting close to .300 at the plate.
Outs Above Average
If you read my Bregman prediction, defense will play a big factor in his contract, and the same goes for Willy Adames. Let’s look at the numbers! Willy Adames has an interesting defensive picture between 2021 and 2023. He had a bump of -7 OAA in 2021, then his defense improved to 2 Outs Above Average in 2022, and again to 7 OAA in 2023. So, over the span of those three seasons, he was worth 13 Outs Above Average, and still has an above average throwing arm. He also generally likes to play closer to the Second Base bag, lowering his ability to get to to balls AT the Shortstop position, allowing them to get between Third and Short. His above average throwing arm allows him to turn Double Plays that most Shortstops wouldn’t be able to, and throw out runners at First Base whenever he does get to balls in the gap. Playing back at his position gives him a split second to get these balls past the Thirdbaseman and himself, which you’ll see him stopping balls a lot in short Left Field as he slides.
The Prediction
I want to make one thing VERY CLEAR, Willy Adames is not a Seager or a Turner, and not even a Correa. I ask myself, why would I want a guy who is only going to hit in the .230’s, or .240’s if I’m lucky? Well, he’s going to 140 or more Games a year as long as you keep him healthy, along with hitting 25+ HR, driving in 80+ RBI, and hitting a lot of Doubles. Plus, he’s good for the highlight reel. What’s the prediction? Remember the baseline of 9-years and $275M that we had with some of the more recent Shortstop contracts that I had at the beginning; it’s going to be close. Definitely 7-9 years and $115-175M is looking about right for him at the moment. Again, another playoff bound player, and that can change things IMMENSELY.
