The Ride So Far, and What’s To Come
Back in February, David Stearns, the President of Baseball Operations of the Mets said that Pete Alonso’s hitting the Free Agency Market was the “most likely outcome”. Here in late-September, Alonso said that he has a ‘gut feeling’ the final homestand won’t be his last with the Mets. Both David and Pete could be right, as players go to into Free Agency and re-sign with their original ball club in the end often. Look at
Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, and a myriad of other players who have tested the market. Not everyone is happy with signing a Mike Trout or Bobby Witt Jr. style extension. Mind you, Pete Alonso IS Scott Boras client, and he is famously known for pushing his clients to going into Free Agency, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Pete is not officially a Met this offseason, and his Agent is talking to other teams about multi-year deals worth $100s of millions of dollars. As far as predicting how much he’ll make and how many years he’ll get, that’s the tough part. In the 2023-24 offseason, the longest MLB contract a Free Agent 1B signed was Rhys Hoskin’s 2-year/$34M contract with the playoff-bound Brewers. Alonso is already making well over that $17M AAV of Hoskin’s deal. He’s actually the fifth highest paid first baseman in all of baseball at the moment, being paid $20.5M by the Mets for the 2024 seas
on. We’re going to use the three players above him on that list, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Matt Olson, as our best markers. Technically the highest paid first baseman going into 2024 is Bryce Harper, but he was signed as an Outfielder who then had to convert positions due to injury, so we won’t use his contract as it may skew things. Using what Freeman/Goldschmidt/Olson are getting paid for 2024, their average is $25M, which would be just $4.5M more than what Alonso is getting paid for the season at $20.5M; this is not a number that Steve Cohen can’t match, or even beat outright. We’re going to look at Alonso’s career numbers, along with all of the MLB first basemen, and see where he lands among them; that would be from 2019-2024. Let’s look at Games Played, Average, RBI, HR, and fWAR along with wRC+ stat. We’ll include only everyday first basemen, as well.
Games Played
- Freddie Freeman – 837 Games Played
- Pete Alonso – 836 Games Played
- Paul Goldschmidt – 827 Games Played
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 809 Games Played
- Christian Walker – 761 Games Played
Being among the most consistent first basemen, not only the National League, in Games Played over the last 6 seasons helps Pete’s case in Free Agency, and the fact that he’ll only be going into his age-30 season in 2025.
Batting Average
- Freddie Freeman – .310 BA
- Yandy Diaz – .289 BA
- Paul Goldschmidt – .278 BA
- Yuli Gurriel – .276 BA
- Jose Abreu – .271 BA
And far, far down the charts of first basemen is Pete Alonso with a .250 batting average so far in his career, not the quite number you’d want to see from a cornerstone piece on your club.
RBI’s
- Pete Alonso – 584 RBI
- Matt Olson – 576 RBI
- Freddie Freeman – 546 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 501 RBI
- (T-5) Paul Goldschmidt – 472 RBI
- (T-5) Jose Abreu – 472 RBI
Standing alone at the top with the most RBIs among first basemen from 2019 through the 2024 season, Pete (slightly) separates himself from the rest of the pack, and balances against his batting average using production.
HR’s
- Pete Alonso – 225 HR
- Matt Olson – 203 HR
- Vladimir Guerr
- ero Jr. – 158 HR
- Freddie Freeman – 154 HR
- Paul Goldschmidt – 152 HR
Pete has risen atop the homerun list for first basemen by having three 40+ HR seasons (2019, 2022,2023) one in which he mashed 53 HR when he was a rookie, leading the National League.
fWAR
- Freddie Freeman – 30.6 fWAR
- Paul Goldschmidt – 21.1 fWAR
- Matt Olson – 20.9 fWAR
- Pete Alonso – 17.6 fWAR
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 16.6 fWAR
Pete now has his name in the top 5 of three categories so far, with comparisons to Matt Olson with a much lesser glove being appropriate at the moment. This bodes well for his next contract.
wRC+
- Freddie Freeman – 150 wRC+
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 137 wRC+
- (T-3) Matt Olson – 133 wRC+
- (T-3) Yandy Diaz – 133 wRC+
- Pete Alonso – 132 wRC+
- Paul Goldschmidt -131 wRC+
Again being a top 5’er in this category, which looks at the Runs per Plate Appearance, scaled down, adjust
ed for ballpark and league, where 100 is average, is very good for Pete. The years and dollars are stacking up.
The Prediction
Alonso has all of the traits you want in a lon
g-term investment; four time all-star, Rookie of the Year, two-time HR Derby Champ, and possibly a postseason player in the coming weeks. That last tangible will be what separates him from a Matt Olson deal and a Bryce Harper type deal. You’re literally getting a guy who will be out there every single day, hitting 25+ Doubles, 40+ HR, and driving in 95+ Runs, year in and year out. Yeah, he may not be a .300 hitter or winning any Gold Glove Awards in the future, but if you need production, this is the bat you want in your lineup, and at a possibly lower amount than most think he’ll get. The defense and other tangibles that Freeman and Olson bring are what will separate them from Alonso, forever, including their pay. I have him getting an AAV of $25M, but at no more than 8 years; 5-years and $125 is probably a good starting point, with a ceiling of 8-years and $200M.
I just can’t justify him having a higher AAV than Freddie Freeman at $27M with the lack of defense and moving to DH in the future, but his offense is something that clubs will pay for. If he and the Mets are in agreement that he should finish out his career with them, he may get lucky and ink a 10-year/$250M deal with them, but that is highly unlikely, unless the deal is littered with club options or vesting options, or even both.
